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Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial and economic market analysis

EU - Q4 Outlook 2026

ECB policy faces a difficult balancing act

Energy inflation puts further rate hikes in focusThe ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.50% on 10 September, its second increase of 2026, reversing the easing cycle that had brought...

13 October 2026

Fiscal pressure leaves the UK caught between inflation and growth

13 October 2026

UK - Q4 Outlook 2026

Japan’s tightening path meets fiscal pressure

13 October 2026

Japan - Q4 Outlook 2026

Silver faces a test of resilience

13 October 2026

Silver - Q4 Outlook 2026

The Fed is fighting the wrong war

13 October 2026

US - Q4 Outlook 2026

ECB policy faces a difficult balancing act

13 October 2026

EU - Q4 Outlook 2026

The oil barrels are back, the calm is not

13 October 2026

Oil - Q4 Outlook 2026

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Market Minutes

Read snapshots of the latest market news

US home sales rise despite high mortgage rates; Australian confidence weakens

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Daily discussion thread for October 9, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 8, 2026

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Daily discussion thread for October 7, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 6, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 5, 2026

Markets today EN

Daily discussion thread for October 2, 2026

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Daily discussion thread for October 1, 2026

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Daily discussion thread for September 29, 2026

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Daily discussion thread for September 28, 2026

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Trading Ideas

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Phillips Curve explained: inflation, unemployment and the limits of monetary policy

CL Articles_October_Philips curve

Propulsion block in ICT and SMC: how to identify and trade it

CL Articles_October_Propulsion block

How to read an earnings report: a beginner's guide

ART_Articles_October_Earnings report

What is the Fed's dual mandate?

ART Articles_October_Feds dual mandate

Why do bond prices and yields move in opposite directions?

CL Articles_October_Bond prices and yields

Liquidity concepts explained for traders

CL Articles_September_Liquidity void

Understanding the ICT 50% Rule

CL Articles_September_50 percent rule in ICT

How opportunity cost shapes financial decisions

28 September 2026

Opportunity cost explained

A trader’s guide to Black Swan events

CL Articles_Sep_Black Swan Event_ART

What causes a recession and how do markets respond?

25 September 2026

Recessions

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Breaking Data

Latest stock market data on the performance of indices, currencies and commodities

US and China detail $30 billion tariff-cut framework

US-China tariff deal covers $30 billion in goods

US-China trade truce extended as Trump-Xi summit turns to rare earths and AI

US-China trade truce extended as Trump-Xi summit turns to rare earths and AI

UK inflation returns above 3% as energy shock tests the Bank of England

UK CPI in August 2026

US jobs report could break the 50-50 split on a September Fed rate hike

US jobs report could break the 50-50 split on a September Fed rate hike

BOJ leans toward September rate hike as yen weakness keeps inflation risk high

image-20260820-082556

US private payrolls rise by just 38,000 as labour market slows

US Employment

New Zealand is entering a harder phase of the rate cycle

New Zealand economy-1

Fed’s Lisa Cook signals rate hike unless inflation improves soon

Lisa Cook signals rate hike

UK inflation falls to 15-Month low but energy risks may limit the relief

UK inflation falls to 15-Month low

Soft UK jobs data give BOE room to hold rates despite oil risk

Soft UK jobs

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Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

The Fed second oil shock: inflation, interest rates and the December decision

CL Articles_October_Fed_00

ECB rate outlook: Eurozone inflation, French debt and rising bond yields

CL Articles_October_ECB_01

What could justify a Fed rate pause or another hike?

CL Articles_US Inflation_5

Fed September minutes: AI investment, energy prices and tariffs complicate rate outlook

CL Articles_October_Fed_02

G7 oil release targets the diesel crisis, but energy risks are far from resolved

CL Articles_Oil_6

French bonds face fresh selling risk as Japanese investors reconsider $145 billion exposure

French bonds face fresh selling risk as Japanese investors reconsider $145 billion exposure

Japan inflation accelerates what it means for the BoJ and yen

CL Articles_October_Japan Economy_02

US jobs report: September payrolls could reshape the Fed rate outlook

September jobs report could strengthen the Fed’s case to wait until December

Middle East oil exports rebound near pre-war levels as Hormuz risks remain

Middle East oil exports rebound near pre-war levels as Hormuz risks remain

China’s Golden Week puts physical gold demand back in focus

China’s Golden Week puts physical gold demand back in focus

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Trade Reviews

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Yen strengthens despite Japan’s producer inflation cooling

ART Articles_USDJPY_Oct13

Gold price scenarios: can buyers reclaim $4,229?

Technical Analysis_Gold_9

US dollar index surpasses 102.50, reaching its highest level since April 2025

DXY_Technical_Oct12

AUD/USD forecast: RBA rate outlook, bond yields and key price levels

Technical Analysis_AUDUSD_Oct-1

Canadian employment declines, missing forecasts; USD/CAD advances

ART_Technical Analysis_USDCAD_Oct 9

Week ahead: US CPI will test the bond market’s relief

Week Ahead - EN

Brent advances amid concerns that the US-Iran conflict could prolong

Technical Analysis_Oil_ART_Oct 8

EUR/USD technical outlook: can 1.1190–1.1200 hold?

Technical Analysis_EURUSD_Oct-3

Euro falls amid growing concerns over France’s government debt

Technical Analysis_EURUSD_ART_Oct 7

S&P 500 advances to record levels despite market uncertainty

S&P 503_ART_Oct 6

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THE TEAM

Our Contributors

Raed Alkhedr

Gold consolidation paves the way for new highs in 2026

21 January 2026

Ahmed Azzam

US Treasury yields face a foreign demand test as China and Japan cut exposure

Nadia Elbilassy

Nadia Elbilassy

Asian markets decline

3 September 2024

Rufas Kamau

Silver faces a test of resilience

13 October 2026

Daniel Mejía

Yen strengthens despite Japan’s producer inflation cooling

Yazeed Abu Summaqa

Yazeed Abu Summaqa

The Fed second oil shock: inflation, interest rates and the December decision