Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial, market & economic analysis

ECB policy faces a difficult balancing act

The European Central Bank (ECB) enters Q4 facing renewed inflation pressure, driven largely by rising energy prices. With interest rates already increasing, policymakers must decide whether further tightening is necessary or whether higher energy costs and weaker demand will do some of the work for them.

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

The Fed is fighting the wrong war

The US economy enters Q4 looking strong on the surface, but the picture becomes less comfortable beneath the headline numbers. Growth remains solid, yet the labour market is losing momentum and inflation is increasingly being driven by pressures that higher interest rates cannot easily solve. That leaves the Fed facing a difficult question: how much further can it tighten without doing more harm than good?

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

The oil barrels are back, the calm is not

Oil enters Q4 under renewed pressure as tensions between the US and Iran continue to disrupt the outlook for global supply. Despite expectations of a return to more stable prices, renewed fighting has pushed Brent back above $100 a barrel, raising concerns about further volatility in the months ahead.

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

Gold caught between central banks and the Fed

Gold enters Q4 caught between two competing forces. Central bank demand continues to provide support, while expectations of higher US interest rates limit its recovery. After a volatile third quarter, the question remains whether gold can regain momentum or face further pressure.

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

Silver faces a test of resilience

Silver enters Q4 caught between high US interest rates and a tightening physical market. Prices have fallen sharply from January's record high, and while supply shortages continue to provide support, the Federal Reserve's next moves are likely to determine whether silver can recover or face further losses.

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

Japan’s tightening path meets fiscal pressure

The Bank of Japan heads into Q4 on a tightening path, while the government continues to support household demand through fiscal measures. Rising inflation, a 1.25% policy rate and reduced JGB purchases could keep bond yields under pressure, while the planned food tax cut adds to borrowing needs. The BoJ’s next move will therefore matter not only for the yen, but also for JGB yields and Japan’s fiscal outlook.

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

Fiscal pressure leaves the UK caught between inflation and growth

The UK enters Q4 with fiscal credibility as a key challenge for both the government and the Bank of England. The government is expected to focus on stabilising debt through higher taxes and tighter spending, while the BoE keeps monetary policy restrictive. The key question is whether the Budget can restore confidence in the UK’s debt outlook without causing a deeper economic slowdown.

13 Oct 2026, 12:00

US Treasury yields face a foreign demand test as China and Japan cut exposure

China and Japan are already reducing some Treasury exposure, raising a bigger question for markets: who absorbs rising U.S. debt supply if major foreign buyers step back?

Yen intervention explained: what really happened and what it means for markets

The latest US-Japan yen intervention has triggered dramatic claims about sovereign stress, hidden Fed bailouts and the decline of fiat currencies. The reality is more nuanced. Japan intervened to strengthen the yen, the US used euros rather than dollars, and the Federal Reserve acted mainly as an operational agent.

Can Kevin Warsh shrink the Fed’s $6.75 trillion balance sheet?

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has long argued that the central bank’s enormous balance sheet distorts financial markets and blurs the boundary between monetary and fiscal policy. Yet after years of quantitative tightening, the Fed has started buying Treasury bills again to maintain ample reserves.