Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial, market & economic analysis

Is the market underestimating the Iran risk again?

US equities are trading near record highs while the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has fallen to levels last seen in 1983. The apparent contradiction raises an important question: is Wall Street underestimating the Iran risk, or has the market correctly concluded that geopolitics matters only when it begins damaging earnings, inflation and interest rates?

China’s retreat from paper gold could reshape global price discovery

Several of China’s largest banks are restricting retail access to paper-gold products and giving customers the choice of closing positions, selling holdings or taking physical delivery. The measures are officially framed as investor protection after a sharp correction in precious metals, but they also fit China’s longer-term effort to build a gold market where physical settlement carries greater influence over pricing.

How Andy Burnham could surprise UK markets this autumn

Andy Burnham’s arrival as UK prime minister has generated little immediate market reaction, but the calm may not last. Tight fiscal rules and a pledge not to raise the biggest taxes point toward a modest Autumn Budget, yet larger moves on public investment, tax reform, borrowing or a snap election could still surprise gilt and sterling markets.

Gold after the correction: Recovery or further downside?

Gold enters the third quarter at an important turning point. After reaching record highs earlier this year, the precious metal has undergone one of its sharpest corrections in recent history as shifting interest-rate expectations reshaped investor sentiment. While central-bank demand continues to provide long-term support, markets will be watching closely to see whether easing monetary policy expectations and technical price action can sustain the recent recovery.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00

The UK balancing inflation, interest rates and the pound

The UK enters Q3 facing a difficult economic backdrop. Inflation remains too sticky, while growth is no longer strong enough to give the Bank of England unlimited room to keep policy restrictive. As a result, markets will be watching every data release closely, because the next move in interest rates, gilt yields and the pound will depend on whether inflation continues to cool without the economy losing too much momentum.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00

Oil's rapid reversal after the Strait of Hormuz crisis

Oil enters the third quarter in a very different position from where it began the year. After surging above $120 a barrel on fears of a major supply disruption, prices have fallen sharply as geopolitical tensions eased and underlying market fundamentals re-emerged. The focus now shifts to whether recovering supply, inventory levels and global demand will keep prices under pressure in the months ahead.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00

Would higher interest rates really bring down US inflation?

The US enters the third quarter facing a familiar but increasingly complex challenge. Inflation remains above target, while economic growth and the labour market have stayed resilient enough to keep the prospect of further interest-rate increases on the table. The key question is whether tighter monetary policy would meaningfully reduce inflation or simply add pressure to an economy already dealing with supply-driven price shocks.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00

Could Japan's credit squeeze spark the next carry trade shock?

Japan’s exit from ultra-loose policy is no longer only a domestic rates story. It’s starting to change credit pricing, yen funding and the risk of a disorderly carry trade unwind. The Bank of Japan is trying to normalise policy gradually, but markets are already testing what happens when an economy built around cheap money begins to face higher funding costs.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00

The ECB faces a difficult third quarter

The European Central Bank enters Q3 facing one of the toughest policy balancing acts among the world's major central banks. The ECB's June decision marked a clear shift. Policymakers raised key interest rates by 25 basis points. ECB could justify pausing after June's rate hike. But if gas prices remain elevated, food prices rise further or wage settlements accelerate, policymakers may be forced to raise rates again despite weak growth.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00

Silver is at a turning point

After a volatile first half of the year, silver enters Q3 at an important turning point. Prices have retreated sharply from their January highs, yet physical supply remains tight and investment demand is showing early signs of improvement. The key question is whether these factors can drive a recovery as interest-rate expectations and broader market sentiment evolve.

16 Jul 2026, 12:00