Global Macro Analysis

The latest financial, market & economic analysis

Oil outlook shifts as Hormuz flows recover and Citi sees brent falling to $65

The global oil market is moving away from peak disruption fears as flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, but the outlook remains highly sensitive to US-Iran tensions. The IEA says global supply rose by 4.1 million barrels per day in June, while Citi expects Brent to average $75 in the third quarter before easing to $65 in 2027 if a US-Iran deal holds and Hormuz reopening becomes durable.

Hormuz reopening floods oil market with supply as brent erases war gains

Oil markets have quickly shifted from fear of shortage to signs of oversupply after the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A wave of crude cargoes from the Persian Gulf is pressuring prices across Asia and Europe, while Brent futures have erased all gains made since the Iran war began.

Global bond yields hit their highest levels since the financial crisis

Long-dated government bond yields around the world have climbed to levels not seen since the global financial crisis, as investors rethink how much compensation they need to hold duration in a world of higher energy costs, stubborn inflation risks and widening fiscal pressures. What began as an oil shock is now feeding into a broader repricing of the long end of the market.

Oil futures vs physical oil: why the market may be underpricing the Hormuz supply shock

The oil futures curve is sending a calmer message than the physical market warrants. With roughly 15 million barrels a day still bottled up around the Strait of Hormuz and global inventories being drained at an extraordinary pace, the front end of the market has reacted, but longer-dated prices remain surprisingly restrained. That disconnect matters because it risks understating both the scale of the current supply shock and the amount of higher prices that may still be needed to restore balance

Silver is under pressure and the next move matters

Silver has already seen a record rally, a sharp supply shock and a historic one-day collapse, all within weeks. Now, as Q2 begins, geopolitics, policy and positioning are starting to collide, leaving the outlook far less clear.

Sticky inflation is cornering the BoE

In Q2 the Bank of England is facing a difficult trade-off. Inflation remains stubborn, growth is weak and public finances are under increasing strain. Together, these forces are limiting policy flexibility and reinforcing the case for rates to stay higher for longer.

Oil has repriced but the risk hasn’t gone away

Oil’s outlook has shifted from extreme supply panic to cautious stabilisation. The peak crisis premium has eased, but the market is still likely to trade with a structurally higher risk floor, reflecting the fragility of the ceasefire, constrained supply flexibility and the enduring strategic vulnerability of Hormuz.

Europe’s recovery is being tested again

Europe’s recovery was starting to take hold, but the environment has shifted again. A new external shock is feeding through energy markets and trade, just as growth remains fragile. The result is a more complex outlook, where inflation risks are rising and policy choices are becoming harder.

The Fed is stuck between inflation risk and slowing growth

The Federal Reserve enters Q2 facing a familiar challenge in a more complex form. Markets have reacted quickly, but for policymakers, the real question is what comes next. An energy-driven shock has hit as inflation was easing but not yet under control, while growth is slowing but not breaking. That leaves the Fed with little room for error, making patience the most likely path.

How many more inflation shocks can the Fed afford to look through?

The Federal Reserve has spent years arguing that inflation spikes tied to supply shocks should not automatically trigger a policy response. That logic still holds, at least for now. But after yet another surge in consumer prices — this time driven by the Iran-linked energy shock — the harder question is no longer whether the Fed should react immediately, but how many more “temporary” shocks households and businesses will tolerate before they stop believing inflation will ever return to 2%.