Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

Gold outlook: can Core PCE and Fed expectations decide the next move?

Gold is facing a different kind of pressure. The Middle East conflict is still supporting demand for safe-haven assets, but higher Treasury yields and renewed expectations for Fed tightening are proving stronger in the short term. Gold has fallen toward the $4,180 area, while the U.S. 10-year yield has moved above 5%, leaving the metal caught between geopolitical demand and rising real yields.

Oil outlook: Iran talks, US diesel shortages and Hormuz risks collide

The oil market is getting conflicting signals. Iran is opening the door to a deal before the U.S. midterms, while Washington is still trying to ease fuel costs without creating a new supply problem. At the same time, U.S. crude inventories are rising even as diesel stocks remain tight. For oil, the next move will depend on whether diplomacy can restore barrels faster than the supply disruptions are taking them away.

Gold slips toward a weekly loss as higher yields revive Fed tightening fears

Gold is heading for a weekly decline as rising bond yields and persistent inflation revive expectations for further Fed tightening.

US Treasury yields top 5% as inflation and oil risks keep markets on edge

The U.S. bond market is starting to set the tone for markets again. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.13%, its highest level since 2007, while the 2-year reached 4.95% and the 30-year moved to about 5.42%. The move came after stronger U.S. activity data, higher oil prices and a weak five-year Treasury auction.

Bank of England pauses, but the inflation fight is not over

The Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, but Thursday's decision was far from a routine hold. Three MPC members wanted a 25-basis-point increase to 4%, while the Bank warned that inflation could move above 4% early next year if the Middle East conflict keeps energy prices high. At the same time, it changed the way it will unwind its gilt holdings, easing the pressure on the long end of the UK bond market.

Markets can live with a hawkish Fed, but uncertainty remains the bigger risk

The Fed’s hawkish message removed one major source of uncertainty, but high oil prices, 5% Treasury yields and questions around AI spending are preventing investors from fully embracing risk.

BOJ raises rates to 31-year high as weak yen keeps inflation risks alive

The Bank of Japan lifted rates to 1.25%, accelerating its normalization cycle even as inflation remains below 2% and the yen continues to trade near historically weak levels.

Fed hikes rates for first time since 2023 as Warsh keeps another move on the table

The Fed delivered its first rate hike in three years and left another increase on the table as Kevin Warsh made clear that persistent inflation remains the central bank’s priority.

Fed meeting today: what comes after the expected rate increase

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5%, reaching its highest level since 2023, as oil prices surged, inflation remained elevated and investors increasingly priced another rate increase. Markets are now assigning roughly a 92–94% probability to a 25-basis-point hike today at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Why Japan 30-year bond yield matters more than the BoJ rate hike

Takaichi’s administration is pursuing an unusually ambitious investment strategy, with a long-term 370 trillion Yien roadmap covering 17 strategic industries, including AI and semiconductors. The government sees investment-led growth to raise productivity and strengthen Japan’s industrial base.