Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

Fed bets, inflation and Iran risk move back to the center of the market

After several weeks in which investors focused mainly on softer U.S. economic data, markets are once again being pulled between two competing forces: a cooling labour market and the risk that higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated. The combination matters because it directly affects expectations for the Federal Reserve, the U.S. dollar, and broader risk sentiment across equities, bonds.

Inflation-protected bonds: what they are and how they work

Inflation-protected bonds can help investors protect the real value of their income and capital when prices rise. They are often used as part of a diversified portfolio, but they still carry risks that should be understood.

10 Aug 2026, 11:00

Gold heads for best week since January as dip-buyers return

Gold is heading for its strongest weekly gain since late January after buyers returned aggressively around key technical levels. Bullion has climbed nearly 6% this week and briefly traded above $4,300 an ounce, although growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike remain a major near-term risk.

Yen’s move below 155 could decide whether historic intervention succeeds

The first coordinated US-Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998 has pulled the currency sharply away from a four-decade low, but the rally now faces its most important test at 155 per dollar. A sustained break through that level could trigger a short squeeze and change trading behavior, while failure may reinforce expectations that the yen will eventually return toward 160.

Iran talks resume: oil market shift focus away from conflict

Oil prices have retreated sharply after President Donald Trump said the United States would hold off on a planned strike against Iran, citing what he described as agreed "parameters" for a rapid diplomatic deal. The announcement eased fears of an immediate military escalation, prompting traders to unwind much of the geopolitical premium that had been built into crude prices during recent weeks.

Why Japan's verbal intervention is losing its grip on the yen

Japanese officials have once again warned that they are prepared to act against excessive moves in the currency market, but investors appear increasingly unconvinced that words alone will be enough to halt the yen's decline. The warning came after USD/JPY climbed above 163, pushing the currency back towards levels that have previously triggered official intervention.

A guide to market liquidity in trading

Market liquidity can change throughout the trading day, around news events and during periods of market stress. Traders often monitor it to avoid wider spreads, poor fills and unexpected slippage.

21 Jul 2026, 12:00

ECB expected to hold rates in July as September hike bets grow

The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% at its upcoming meeting, but policymakers are unlikely to signal that the tightening cycle has ended. Markets currently assign a 92% probability to a hawkish hold, while expectations for another rate hike in September have climbed to around 78% as renewed energy pressures threaten to slow the euro area's disinflation process.

Oil prices surge nearly 26% as Hormuz disruption threatens global supply

Oil prices have surged nearly 26% as the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz continues to restrict global energy flows. Oman has opened a temporary southern maritime corridor along its coastline to help evacuate stranded commercial vessels and restore some shipping activity, but the limited route has failed to replace the capacity normally provided by the strategic waterway.

Why is one CPI report not enough for the Fed

June's inflation report gave markets exactly what they wanted. Headline inflation came in softer than expected, and traders quickly moved to price a much lower chance of another rate hike. By the end of the week, futures were implying roughly an 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged in July, a sharp shift from what had looked like a genuine coin toss only days earlier.