Global Macro Analysis

Economic outlook for the US - Q3 2024

Has this month's FOMC meeting seen the Fed make a mistake with monetary policy?

This month's FOMC meeting saw the Fed reduce the number of interest rate cuts expected this year from three to just one. We believe this to be a mistake and that additional cuts will be needed before year-end if the Fed is to move ahead of the policy curve.

Heightened market volatility persists regarding the potential for US rate cuts

The markets continue to express a heightened sense of nervousness regarding whether or not the Fed will actually be able to cut interest rates this year.

Economic outlook for Emerging Markets - Q2 2024

Economic outlook for the UK - Q2 2024

Economic outlook for the US - Q2 2024

How global elections will affect investment opportunities

Economic outlook for the UK - Q1 2024

The economic outlook for the UK looks challenging, with growth set to remain constrained by high interest rates and the on-going squeeze from a still tightening fiscal policy.

Fed using rising term premiums to keep interest rates on hold

The Fed is using an increase in the term premium as a reason for keeping interest rates on hold. It is a potentially dangerous strategy.

Australia's Q4 outlook 2023

The RBA may ease policy and possibly cut rates in 2024 to counter the impact of previous monetary tightening on domestic consumption.