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Week ahead: ECB leadership, US Core PCE and payrolls to drive global markets
ECB is facing a leadership reshuffle after Schnabel confirmed she will leave in January, while Lagarde has declined to rule out an earlier departure. In the US, jobless claims remain historically low even as Treasury investors have demanded higher yields for longer-dated debt. Japan is also keeping a close watch on the yen, while renewed diplomatic signals from Iran have opened a new variable for oil markets.
FTSE 100 signals uncertainty as inflation drives global bond yields higher
The FTSE 100 fell marginally to 10,680 points as surging global bond yields and inflation fears created widespread market uncertainty, while ongoing geopolitical tensions continued to push up key energy prices worldwide.
Natural Gas advances as Middle East tensions raise supply concerns
Natural Gas futures have surged 157% year-to-date, driven by escalating Middle East tensions, Qatari supply cuts, and impending winter demand across Europe.
USD/JPY analysis: 152 support vs. 160 resistance
The Bank of Japan has started moving more quickly. It raised its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, only seven weeks after the previous increase, marking the fastest pace of tightening in the current cycle. Earlier moves had generally been spaced much further apart.
Gold maintains its long-term bullish structure despite US dollar strength
Gold continues to sustain its long-term bullish trend, recording a 17.73% year-on-year (YoY) gain. Robust central bank demand and safe-haven buying continue to offset short-term headwinds stemming from a strengthening US dollar and elevated Treasury yields.
Oil price technical analysis: Profit-taking or the start of a deeper reversal?
The oil market started the week with two opposing forces. Washington and Tehran are leaving the door open to diplomacy, while attacks on Saudi infrastructure have cut an important export route. That is why crude has pulled back from its recent highs without removing the supply premium altogether.
BoJ raises interest rate to highest level since 1995, yet the yen falls
The Bank of Japan has raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, reaching a 31-year high. Despite this historic rate hike, the yen weakened against the US dollar as market participants prioritised the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary stance.
GBP/USD declines as Fed policy turns more restrictive and BoE remains neutral
GBP/USD fell as a restrictive Federal Reserve rate hike contrasted sharply with the Bank of England holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.75%.
Oil price analysis: can Crude hold above $100
The U.S. crude market delivered a bearish signal this week. The API reported a 7.14-million-barrel increase in inventories for the week ending September 11, against expectations for a draw. Gasoline and distillate stocks also increased. Normally, that would put immediate pressure on crude.
10-year Treasury yield reaches multi-year high as US dollar strengthens
The 10-year US Treasury yield has reached the 5.0% mark amid persistent inflationary pressures and mounting sovereign debt concerns. Concurrently, elevated yields and geopolitical safe-haven demand have pushed the US dollar index upwards.
