Market Insights

In-depth insights on market events and major trades

The Fed second oil shock: inflation, interest rates and the December decision

The question facing the Federal Reserve is no longer whether higher energy prices will lift inflation. September’s figures have already confirmed that. The harder question is whether the shock will fade with oil prices or work its way into the wider economy, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates higher even as households and businesses lose purchasing power.

ECB rate outlook: Eurozone inflation, French debt and rising bond yields

The European Central Bank is facing an increasingly difficult trade-off. Higher energy prices are pushing inflation further above target, but the resulting squeeze in households and businesses could weaken demand enough to reduce the need for additional rate hikes.

What could justify a Fed rate pause or another hike?

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September partly to protect its credibility on inflation, but the challenge is that neither inflation nor employment provides a clear signal. Higher energy costs threaten to keep inflation above target, the distinction between headline and core CPI will therefore be central to the next policy decision.

Fed September minutes: AI investment, energy prices and tariffs complicate rate outlook

The Federal Reserve's September minutes show that the case for tighter policy is no longer built around the labour market alone. Energy prices, tariffs and the scale of AI investment are becoming part of the inflation equation, while weaker payroll growth is making another immediate hike harder to justify.

G7 oil release targets the diesel crisis, but energy risks are far from resolved

G7 has agreed to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products over four months, with a substantial volume of diesel released within the first 20 days. The move may ease the immediate fuel shortage, but it also exposes a deeper problem in the global oil market: crude is returning faster than refining and logistics capacity.

French bonds face fresh selling risk as Japanese investors reconsider $145 billion exposure

Japanese investors hold an unusually large position in French debt, creating another vulnerability for France as domestic Japanese yields rise and fiscal concerns push French borrowing costs higher.

Japan inflation accelerates what it means for the BoJ and yen

Japan’s latest data are putting the Bank of Japan in an increasingly difficult position, inflation is accelerating faster than expected, the labour market remains tight, yet the government is preparing measures to ease the pressure on households. The question for markets is no longer whether the BOJ can continue normalizing policy. It is how quickly it can do so without tightening into an economy where consumption remains uneven.

US jobs report: September payrolls could reshape the Fed rate outlook

The September US jobs report is expected to show slower hiring but stable unemployment, a combination that could give the Fed more time before its next rate hike.

Middle East oil exports rebound near pre-war levels as Hormuz risks remain

Middle East oil exports have recovered sharply, yet Brent remains above $100 as markets continue to price the risk of renewed disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.

China’s Golden Week puts physical gold demand back in focus

China’s Golden Week could provide an important test for physical gold demand after the recent sharp correction in prices.